After years of whiplash—from the Great Resignation to quiet quitting—the pendulum appears to have swung.
New data from Employ Inc.’s 2026 Hiring Benchmarks Report reveals a dramatic drop in first-year turnover. The percentage of employees leaving within their first year fell from 23.7% in 2024 to 12.1% in 2025—a 48.9% decrease.
That’s not a minor fluctuation. It’s a structural shift.
The findings align with recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing both the unemployment rate and quit levels holding steady. Translation: workers aren’t jumping ship like they were two years ago.
Welcome to what some are calling the “Great Stay.”
What’s Behind the Sharp Drop?
The report draws from 6,640 customers across Employ’s talent acquisition platforms—Jobvite, Lever, and JazzHR—spanning industries and company sizes.
First-year turnover is a critical metric. It measures whether new hires stick beyond the onboarding phase and early ramp-up period. When that number improves, it suggests stronger alignment between hiring practices, onboarding, and role expectations.
But context matters.
Stephanie Manzelli, Employ’s Chief People Officer, described onboarding as the “hot potato” moment—the transition point between talent acquisition, HR operations, and hiring managers. When that handoff falters, early exits follow.
So why the improvement now?
External market pressure appears to be playing a significant role. With hiring slowing in many sectors and economic uncertainty lingering, employees may be prioritizing stability over mobility. In a flatter job market, risk tolerance drops.
Retention improves—not necessarily because engagement soars, but because alternatives narrow.
A Labor Market Cooling, Not Collapsing
The BLS data showing flat quits reinforces that this isn’t a hiring boom. It’s a cooling market stabilizing after years of volatility.
During the height of the Great Resignation, first-year turnover surged as employees tested new roles and quickly moved again if expectations didn’t align. Now, mobility has slowed.
But cyclical hiring patterns remain. Employ emphasizes that while the “Great Stay” may be influencing retention, market conditions can pivot quickly.
In other words, don’t mistake temporary calm for permanent change.
Redefining What “Good” Looks Like
The 2026 report—titled Redefining What Good Looks Like—positions itself as a recalibration guide for talent acquisition leaders.
Over the last five years, HR teams have navigated:
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The Great Resignation
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Quiet quitting
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Coffee badging
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The Great Reset
Each wave reshaped recruiting KPIs and retention strategies.
Now, lower first-year turnover forces a different question: If employees are staying longer, how should hiring success be measured?
It may no longer be enough to focus solely on time-to-fill or cost-per-hire. With stability returning, organizations have an opportunity to evaluate quality-of-hire metrics, onboarding effectiveness, and long-term workforce planning.
Retention data, once reactive, can become predictive.
From Reporting Metrics to Driving Outcomes
Employ is leaning into that narrative with an upcoming webinar, “Making Sense of Metrics: Turning Hiring Benchmarks into Actions,” featuring Manzelli alongside talent leaders from Fairfax Radiology Centers, BambooHR, and Employ itself.
The focus: moving from reporting metrics to improving business outcomes.
That shift reflects a broader HR tech trend. Dashboards are abundant. What’s scarce is interpretation.
AI-driven recruiting platforms can surface data faster than ever. But without context—economic signals, internal culture health, competitive benchmarks—numbers risk becoming noise.
The first-year turnover drop offers a rare moment of positive headline data in an otherwise cautious hiring environment. The challenge for HR leaders is determining whether this is:
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A sign of stronger onboarding and cultural alignment
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A byproduct of economic caution
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Or a blend of both
Strategic Implications for HR Leaders
If the labor market tightens again, retention gains could evaporate. Organizations that use this period to strengthen onboarding, clarify role expectations, and invest in development pathways will be better positioned for the next hiring cycle.
Lower turnover also presents financial upside. Recruiting costs remain high, and reducing early attrition protects those investments. Every retained employee avoids the expense of backfilling and retraining.
But stability can mask disengagement. A workforce that stays may not necessarily be a workforce that thrives.
The real test will be whether engagement and performance metrics rise alongside retention—or simply plateau.
The Bottom Line
A nearly 49% drop in first-year turnover marks one of the most significant hiring shifts since the pandemic-era labor upheavals.
The data suggests employees are choosing stability. For HR teams, that’s an opportunity—but not a guarantee.
Retention may be improving. The next question is whether organizations are ready to capitalize on it.
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