The labor market might still look strong on paper, but under the hood the engine is sputtering. Employers keep posting fresh jobs, candidates keep applying, yet far fewer offers are actually being made. That “now hiring” sign may be lit, but the doors aren’t exactly swinging open.
That’s the picture emerging from the iCIMS Insights November Workforce Report, which analyzes hiring patterns across thousands of employers and millions of applications. And according to iCIMS, one trend is becoming impossible to ignore: candidate interest is cooling at the exact moment employers are slowing hiring, creating an increasingly clogged funnel.
The headlines:
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Applications: down 7% month-over-month, but still up 9% year-over-year.
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Hiring: down 5% since October 2024, continuing a steady post-summer slide.
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Job openings: up 4% year-over-year, hitting their highest point in a year.
It’s a market defined by hesitation—employers want a bench of talent ready, but not enough certainty to pull the trigger. For candidates, that hesitancy is starting to show in slowing resume submissions.
As Trent Cotton, head of talent acquisition insights at iCIMS, puts it:
“More openings, slower hiring rate. That mismatch won’t last. Frustrated candidates drop off fast, so the firms that cut red tape and move top talent through quickly will own the market.”
In other words: in a slow-motion labor market, speed becomes a competitive advantage.
A Labor Market Out of Sync
The data continues a trend we’ve seen across the second half of 2024—a bifurcated labor environment where hiring demand exists, but decision-making is stuck in neutral.
Job postings remain strong because headcount forecasts and workforce planning cycles haven’t collapsed. But actual hiring slows when budget approvals get tighter, teams delay backfilling, and leadership hesitates to make commitments in a foggy economic landscape.
For employers, this imbalance is risky: the longer the lag between opening a role and making a hire, the more likely top candidates disengage, ghost, or get scooped by faster-moving competitors. For candidates, the experience is starting to feel eerily similar to previous periods of economic caution—lots of advertised opportunity, but fewer outcomes.
Manufacturing: More Applicants, Fewer Jobs Filled
The iCIMS report includes a special deep dive into manufacturing, a sector that has been aggressively rebuilding its workforce amid reshoring efforts, supply-chain recalibration, and ongoing demand for technical and production talent.
But the picture is complicated.
Manufacturing job openings are up 14% year-over-year
Manufacturers have been steadily expanding their postings since June, pointing to sustained demand for labor—even as certain verticals cool.
Yet hiring is down 7% year-over-year
This is the sector’s most notable mismatch: more open roles than last year, but fewer hires actually being made.
After a midyear hiring rally, manufacturers appear to be tapping the brakes, letting openings pile up while decision-making slows.
Applications are up 12% since last October—but falling month-over-month
Candidate interest is still strong overall, but the recent decline mirrors the broader labor market slowdown.
Applicants per opening (APO) rose from 41 to 47 year-over-year
Manufacturing continues to attract candidates—more than many white-collar sectors right now. iCIMS notes that the industry may be capturing talent displaced from tech and related fields.
Particularly interesting:
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APO for computer and math roles in manufacturing jumped 27% (65 to 83)
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APO for architecture and engineering roles rose 24% (51 to 64)
Manufacturing seems to be the surprise beneficiary of tech layoffs, pulling in talent with transferable skills in automation, digital manufacturing, and systems engineering.
Slower Hiring Decisions Are Creating a Process Bottleneck
The clearest sign of hiring friction: time-to-fill increased from 40 to 42 days year-over-year in manufacturing.
Two days may not sound dramatic, but in hiring cycles—especially for technical manufacturing talent—it’s a meaningful slowdown. In markets where skilled candidates have options, speed as little as a week can determine whether a company secures or loses the hire.
Cotton underscores the point:
“The data points to process friction, not pipeline scarcity. For manufacturing recruiters, the edge will go to those who treat hiring like production: measure throughput, eliminate bottlenecks and keep talent moving.”
That framing matters. This isn’t a shortage problem—it’s a systems problem. Companies have applicants. They have open roles. They’re simply not connecting the two efficiently.
It echoes what broader HR tech trends are showing across 2024 and 2025:
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Long decision cycles break candidate engagement.
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Slow screening and scheduling undermine even high-quality pipelines.
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Hiring processes built for a different era struggle in high-volume and high-skill segments.
The employers who win in this climate will be those who modernize hiring velocity—not just budgets.
Bigger Picture: The Market Is Poised for a Snapback
The widening gap between postings and hires won’t hold forever. Historically, when job openings significantly outpace hires, two things typically (and eventually) happen:
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Hiring accelerates suddenly as economic uncertainty clears.
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Employers retract postings once budget pressure outweighs hiring optimism.
Right now, postings continue to climb, suggesting companies remain bullish on long-term labor needs but risk-averse in the short term. This dynamic often precedes a snapback—either a hiring rebound or a colder freeze.
For now, the market is balanced on a knife’s edge, and candidate interest is beginning to soften in response to the stalemate.
What This Means for Talent Leaders Right Now
The iCIMS report reinforces a few takeaways for HR and TA leaders navigating the next quarter:
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Speed is becoming the top differentiator, not employer brand.
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Candidate drop-off is rising, particularly for in-demand roles.
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Pipeline quality is holding, but funnel conversion is deteriorating.
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Manufacturing has a rare advantage: high applicant interest, if it can reduce process friction.
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Tech layoffs are reshaping the skills landscape, and industries like manufacturing are absorbing the talent influx.
The companies that act now—streamlining workflows, eliminating bottlenecks, adopting recruiting automation—will be positioned to capitalize on demand as soon as hiring conditions shift.
Everyone else risks heading into 2025 with a backlog of unfilled roles and a disengaged talent market.
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