Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping how companies hire, evaluate, and promote talent. But according to a new report from Opportunity@Work, the technology’s long-term impact may depend on a critical question that remains largely unresolved: will AI expand access to opportunity, or reinforce the barriers that have historically excluded millions of skilled workers?
The organization’s 2026 State of the Paper Ceiling report argues that the future of workforce mobility will be determined not by AI itself, but by the systems, signals, and hiring practices organizations choose to embed into it.
At the center of the discussion are more than 70 million Americans classified as STARs—workers who are Skilled Through Alternative Routes rather than through a traditional bachelor’s degree. For decades, these workers have faced what Opportunity@Work calls the “paper ceiling,” a structural barrier created by degree requirements and hiring practices that often overlook skills gained through work experience, military service, certifications, apprenticeships, and other nontraditional pathways.
Now, as AI increasingly influences hiring decisions, workforce leaders face a pivotal choice: automate old biases or accelerate a more skills-based labor market.
The Labor Market Is Infrastructure
The report frames the labor market as a form of infrastructure—one built not from roads and bridges, but from signals and pathways.
Signals include the criteria employers use to evaluate talent, such as job descriptions, degree requirements, screening tools, and recruitment technologies. Pathways refer to the routes workers follow to develop skills and advance their careers through education, training programs, and job experiences.
Like physical infrastructure, these systems are shaped by design decisions.
For decades, many of those decisions favored degree holders, often excluding qualified workers who gained skills outside traditional higher education pathways. According to Opportunity@Work, that design contributed to STARs losing access to approximately 7.4 million good jobs between 2000 and 2020.
The report argues that today’s AI-powered hiring systems have the potential either to preserve those patterns or to redesign them.
“The labor market will not become inclusive by accident,” said Papia Debroy, Chief Impact Officer at Opportunity@Work. “The data is now unambiguous: when employers send better signals and create pathways based on skills, workers who gain skills through alternative routes succeed at rates that challenge long-held assumptions about talent.”
Signs of Progress for Skills-Based Hiring
Despite longstanding barriers, the report points to measurable improvements in workforce mobility for STARs over the past several years.
Among its most notable findings:
- STARs regained 783,000 jobs after two decades of declining access.
- Employers participating in Opportunity@Work networks increased jobs open to STARs by nearly 20% year over year, representing roughly 600,000 positions.
- Fifty-two percent of STARs who started new jobs within the network achieved upward career mobility during the most recent year.
- Approximately 90,000 STARs have advanced into higher-opportunity roles since 2022.
- Thirty-three U.S. states have committed to removing degree requirements from public-sector jobs.
- Seventy-five percent of employers report being more likely to hire STARs today than they were two to three years ago.
These figures suggest that skills-based hiring initiatives are beginning to generate measurable results, particularly among organizations that have intentionally redesigned hiring practices.
The report notes that employers familiar with the paper ceiling concept were significantly more likely to open traditionally degree-required roles to STARs. In 2025, 62% of those positions were accessible to STAR candidates among informed employers, compared with 57% across the broader market.
While the difference may appear modest, workforce experts argue that even small shifts in hiring criteria can unlock opportunities for millions of workers over time.
AI Becomes the Next Workforce Battleground
The report’s central warning focuses on artificial intelligence.
Opportunity@Work describes AI as “amplified intention”—technology capable of observing existing patterns and scaling them rapidly.
That capability creates both opportunity and risk.
If AI systems are trained on historical hiring data that reflects decades of degree bias, the technology may reinforce exclusionary practices at unprecedented scale. Automated screening tools could continue prioritizing credentials over demonstrated skills, potentially making it even harder for qualified non-degree candidates to gain visibility.
Conversely, if AI systems are designed to identify competencies, transferable skills, and alternative career pathways, they could dramatically expand access to opportunity.
The distinction is becoming increasingly important as AI-driven recruiting platforms play a larger role in workforce decisions.
Many organizations already rely on AI for resume screening, candidate matching, job recommendations, skills assessments, and workforce planning. As adoption accelerates, the design choices made today could influence hiring outcomes for years to come.
“The defaults being set today will shape who can access opportunity, advance, and thrive for generations,” Debroy said. “This is the moment to get them right.”
The Threat to Workforce Mobility
Beyond hiring decisions, the report highlights concerns about AI’s impact on workforce mobility itself.
Recent research conducted with Brookings and Opportunity@Work identified up to 11 million “gateway jobs” that may be vulnerable to AI-driven disruption.
These positions serve as critical stepping stones for workers seeking to advance into higher-paying careers. They often include entry-level and mid-skill roles that provide opportunities to gain experience, build professional networks, and develop transferable skills.
If AI significantly reduces demand for these jobs, it could weaken one of the most important mechanisms workers use to move up the economic ladder.
The issue extends beyond employment numbers.
Gateway jobs function as career infrastructure. Without them, organizations may struggle to develop future talent pipelines while workers lose access to opportunities that support long-term career growth.
For HR leaders, this raises important questions about workforce planning, reskilling initiatives, and the future structure of career progression.
A Shared Responsibility Across the Workforce Ecosystem
One of the report’s key conclusions is that no single organization can solve the problem alone.
The future of skills-based hiring and equitable AI adoption depends on coordinated action across multiple stakeholders, including:
- Employers
- HR technology providers
- Government agencies
- Educational institutions
- Workforce development organizations
- Philanthropic funders
HR technology companies, in particular, are likely to play an increasingly influential role as AI becomes embedded in recruiting and talent management platforms.
The report argues that these organizations have a responsibility to ensure that AI systems prioritize demonstrated skills and capabilities rather than relying solely on historical credentials.
As workforce technology evolves, the design choices embedded within algorithms may become as important as the technology itself.
Why This Matters for the Future of Work
The conversation surrounding AI often focuses on automation, productivity gains, and job displacement.
Opportunity@Work’s report introduces a different perspective: workforce access.
The organization’s research suggests that AI’s greatest impact may not be the jobs it replaces, but the opportunities it creates—or restricts—for future workers.
For employers facing talent shortages, skills-based hiring has emerged as a practical strategy for expanding talent pools and improving workforce diversity. For workers without four-year degrees, it represents a pathway to careers that have historically been out of reach.
The report ultimately argues that AI should be viewed as infrastructure rather than merely technology.
Just as roads determine where people can travel, hiring systems determine who gets access to opportunity. And as AI becomes increasingly embedded within those systems, the decisions made today may shape workforce mobility for decades to come.
Whether AI ultimately dismantles the paper ceiling or reinforces it could become one of the defining workforce questions of the next decade.
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