Artificial intelligence is no longer just a productivity enhancer or efficiency play—it has become the single biggest factor influencing layoff decisions, surpassing market and industry conditions. That’s the central—and unsettling—finding of a new report from Careerminds, a global workforce solutions provider.
What makes the data more striking is the disconnect it exposes: while employers quietly plan for AI-driven workforce reductions, employees remain overwhelmingly confident their jobs are safe.
The findings come from Workforce Resilience in the AI Era, a Careerminds study based on national surveys of 500 HR leaders and 500 employees at large U.S. organizations, conducted in November 2025. Together, the results paint a picture of two sides of the workforce operating with very different assumptions about what AI means for job security.
AI Moves From Experiment to Workforce Trigger
According to the report, AI now ranks as the most frequently cited factor influencing layoff decisions, outpacing traditional drivers like market downturns or industry disruption. More than half of HR leaders surveyed (57%) say their organization is likely to conduct layoffs in the next year—and nearly half of that group point directly to increased AI adoption as a major contributor.
This marks a meaningful shift. Historically, layoffs have been framed as reactive measures tied to revenue pressure or macroeconomic conditions. Careerminds’ data suggests AI is changing that logic: organizations are proactively restructuring roles as technology reshapes how work gets done.
In other words, layoffs are no longer just about survival—they’re about redesign.
Employees Feel Safe—Perhaps Too Safe
Despite these signals, 90% of employees say they’re confident their job will remain secure over the next 12 months. That optimism stands in sharp contrast to what HR leaders are planning behind the scenes.
Careerminds President Raymond Lee calls this gap one of the report’s most important insights.
“Organizations are actively planning for workforce changes tied to AI adoption, while many employees still view AI primarily as a productivity tool rather than a catalyst for structural change,” Lee said. “That gap creates real risk—for both individuals and employers.”
Employees’ relatively positive experiences with AI today may help explain the disconnect. Many report that AI tools have made their jobs easier or more efficient, reinforcing the perception that technology is additive rather than disruptive. What’s missing, the report suggests, is awareness of how quickly those same tools can lead to role consolidation, automation, or elimination.
From Job Security to Skill Security
Careerminds argues that the traditional idea of job security is quietly eroding. In its place, a new concept is emerging: “skill security.”
Rather than stability coming from holding a specific role, future security will depend on how transferable and durable an employee’s skills are as roles evolve. The report identifies problem-solving, communication, and AI literacy as the most critical capabilities workers should develop heading into 2026.
“In 2026, stability won’t come from holding a static role,” Lee said. “It will come from having durable, transferable skills—especially the ability to work alongside AI as tools continue to change.”
This framing aligns with broader HR tech and talent trends, from skills-based hiring to internal talent marketplaces. But Careerminds’ data suggests the urgency is increasing faster than employee awareness.
HR Leaders See Responsibility—And Risk
While AI is driving difficult decisions, HR leaders aren’t approaching the shift with indifference. Nearly 90% of HR leaders surveyed believe organizations have a responsibility to support workers impacted by AI-driven change.
That support spans:
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Upskilling and reskilling initiatives
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Clear career frameworks and internal mobility pathways
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Talent redeployment into emerging roles
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Outplacement support when redeployment isn’t possible
The challenge, according to the report, is execution. Without transparent communication and early investment in skills development, organizations risk alienating employees—and losing valuable institutional knowledge—just as they need adaptability most.
Why This Matters Now
The Careerminds findings arrive as AI adoption accelerates across HR, operations, and knowledge work. Unlike past waves of automation, today’s AI tools touch white-collar roles once considered relatively insulated from disruption.
For HR leaders, the report reinforces a hard truth: AI strategy is now workforce strategy. Organizations that treat AI purely as a technology initiative may find themselves managing avoidable layoffs, talent shortages, and trust gaps.
For employees, the message is equally direct. Confidence alone won’t protect jobs. Skills will.
What’s Next
To help organizations act on these insights, Careerminds will host a live, data-driven webinar on January 28, 2026, focused on how AI and market shifts are redefining job security and workforce resilience.
The session will feature:
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Raymond Lee, President, Careerminds
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Anjna Rughani, Strategic Advisor
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Steven Bianchi, Chief People Officer and serial founder
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Nicole Coletta, Director of Talent Insights, Accenture
Topics will include how skills are expiring faster, why internal mobility matters more than ever, and practical steps leaders can take to build resilient, AI-ready workforces. All registrants will receive a copy of the report and a recording of the session.
The Bottom Line
AI is no longer a distant threat to employment—it’s already shaping workforce decisions. The real risk, Careerminds’ data suggests, isn’t automation itself, but misalignment: between what organizations are planning and what employees believe is happening.
Bridging that gap may determine which companies—and which careers—emerge stronger in the AI era.
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