If 2025 was the year of workforce whiplash, 2026 is shaping up to be the year of workforce contradiction.
According to new research from Resume.org, hiring momentum remains strong heading into the new year—but layoffs aren’t going away. In fact, they’re being actively planned. The December 2025 survey of 1,000 U.S. hiring managers paints a picture of companies expanding and contracting at the same time, reshaping their workforces around shifting priorities, AI adoption, and financial caution.
The takeaway is clear: this isn’t a hiring slowdown or a layoff wave. It’s a rebalancing.
Hiring Is Strong—and Starting Early
Despite economic uncertainty and ongoing restructuring across industries, 92% of hiring managers say their companies plan to hire in 2026, and 86% expect hiring to begin in Q1.
That level of early-year hiring intent suggests companies are no longer waiting for perfect macro conditions. Instead, they’re moving decisively to fill roles tied directly to growth, transformation, and efficiency—often while cutting elsewhere.
Organizations that don’t plan to hire are driven less by pessimism and more by caution. Among non-hiring companies, the top reasons cited were:
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Budget constraints (48%)
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Revenue uncertainty (39%)
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Pressure to control costs (38%)
In other words, hiring pauses aren’t about talent pessimism—they’re about financial discipline.
Layoffs Are Still on the Table—Often at the Same Time
While hiring headlines tend to dominate attention, Resume.org’s data confirms what many workers already suspect: layoffs remain a central part of 2026 workforce planning.
More than half of hiring managers (55%) say their company expects layoffs next year. Nearly half (48%) believe layoffs will either definitely or probably occur in Q1 alone, including:
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17% who say layoffs will definitely happen
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31% who say layoffs will probably happen
This overlap—hiring and layoffs happening simultaneously—is not accidental. It reflects deliberate portfolio management of talent rather than across-the-board cost cutting.
What’s Really Driving Layoffs?
Contrary to popular narratives, layoffs aren’t being driven by a single disruptive force. Instead, Resume.org’s findings show a blend of structural and strategic pressures:
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AI adoption (44%)
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Reorganization or restructuring (42%)
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Budget constraints (39%)
That mix suggests layoffs are less about panic and more about alignment. Companies are shedding roles that no longer fit near-term objectives while reinvesting in areas that promise faster ROI.
As Kara Dennison, Head of Career Advising at Resume.org, puts it:
“What we are seeing is workforce rebalancing.”
Dennison notes that companies are increasingly reducing roles that are higher-cost, slower to deliver measurable impact, or tied to legacy operating models. That often includes middle management layers, duplicated roles created by past reorganizations, and functions built around outdated processes.
AI’s Real Impact: More Subtle Than Headlines Suggest
AI continues to loom large over workforce discussions—but Resume.org’s data adds nuance to the conversation.
Only 9% of hiring managers say AI has fully replaced certain roles. A much larger group reports more incremental change:
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45% say AI has partially reduced the need for new hires
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45% say AI has had little to no impact on staffing levels
In other words, AI is influencing how companies hire more than whether they hire.
However, there’s a notable perception gap. 59% of hiring managers admit they emphasize AI when explaining hiring freezes or layoffs, even when financial constraints are the primary driver.
Dennison warns this can be risky.
“AI has become an explanation because it sounds strategic and forward-looking,” she says. “But when AI is used as a blanket explanation and workloads do not meaningfully change, trust erodes quickly.”
This finding underscores a growing challenge for employers: narrative credibility. As employees become more sophisticated about AI’s actual capabilities, vague justifications may backfire.
The New Hiring Profile: Skills Over Titles
As companies rebalance, what they’re looking for in new hires is also shifting.
Rather than prioritizing tenure or pedigree, employers say they’re focused on adaptability and immediate impact. The most in-demand traits for 2026 include:
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Problem-solving skills (54%)
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Ability to learn new tools quickly (44%)
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Communication skills (43%)
This signals a move away from rigid role definitions and toward fluid skill sets—especially in environments where AI tools, workflows, and priorities evolve rapidly.
It also reinforces a broader trend across HR and talent acquisition: job descriptions are becoming less about static responsibilities and more about capability clusters.
What This Means for Workers
For employees and job seekers, the Resume.org data helps explain why the labor market can feel confusing. Companies may announce layoffs while simultaneously posting hundreds of open roles. This isn’t inconsistency—it’s strategy.
Workers in roles tied to revenue generation, transformation initiatives, AI enablement, and operational efficiency are likely to see continued demand. Those in functions perceived as slower-moving or less aligned with near-term priorities may face more risk, regardless of performance.
Transparency will matter more than ever. As AI narratives grow louder, employees will increasingly judge employers not just by decisions, but by how honestly those decisions are explained.
A Workforce in Motion
The 2026 workforce isn’t shrinking—it’s reshaping itself.
Resume.org’s findings show companies moving away from broad expansion or contraction and toward precision hiring and targeted reductions. It’s a more surgical approach to workforce management—one that rewards adaptability but increases uncertainty.
For HR leaders, the challenge will be balancing speed with trust. For workers, the opportunity lies in building portable skills that align with change rather than resisting it.
One thing is certain: in 2026, hiring and layoffs are no longer opposites. They’re two sides of the same workforce strategy.
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