U.S. employers remain optimistic about hiring through the second half of 2026, yet many continue to face persistent talent shortages that are slowing recruitment efforts. New research from Express Employment Professionals and The Harris Poll shows that while most companies plan to expand their workforce, nearly half of hiring managers report they cannot fill open positions, underscoring the growing complexity of talent acquisition in an AI-driven labor market.

The U.S. labor market continues to present a mixed picture for employers. While organizations are maintaining confidence in their hiring plans, many are struggling to connect with qualified candidates, highlighting an ongoing mismatch between workforce demand and available talent.

According to the latest Express Employment Professionals–Harris Poll survey, 84% of U.S. hiring managers are optimistic about their company’s hiring outlook for the remainder of 2026. That figure remains largely unchanged from late 2025, signaling continued confidence despite economic uncertainty and evolving workforce dynamics.

The optimism is translating into active recruitment. Approximately 60% of employers expect to increase headcount during the second half of the year, although that represents a modest decline from 66% reported in the previous survey. Nearly one in five employers plans significant workforce expansion, indicating that many organizations continue investing in growth initiatives despite broader market volatility.

However, hiring intentions are not translating into filled positions. The survey found that 44% of hiring managers currently have open roles they cannot fill, the highest level recorded since Spring 2023. The increase from 36% in late 2025 suggests that talent shortages remain one of the most significant operational challenges facing employers.

For HR leaders, the findings reinforce a growing reality: recruiting has become less about generating job openings and more about overcoming structural workforce constraints. Candidate availability, evolving skill requirements, and competition for specialized talent continue to reshape enterprise hiring strategies.

Business Growth Continues to Drive Recruitment

Among organizations planning to hire, business expansion remains the primary catalyst. More than half of employers cited increased workloads as the leading reason for expanding their workforce, while nearly half reported creating new positions to support business growth.

Replacing employees lost through turnover also remains a significant hiring driver, reflecting continued movement within the labor market. More than one-third of employers are also recruiting to support expansion into new markets or business segments.

These findings suggest that hiring activity is closely tied to operational growth rather than speculative workforce expansion. As organizations pursue digital transformation, customer demand, and geographic expansion, workforce planning has become increasingly strategic.

Cost Pressures Influence Workforce Decisions

Not every employer is expanding. Nearly one-third of surveyed hiring managers expect staffing levels to remain unchanged during the remainder of 2026, while a smaller percentage anticipate reducing headcount.

Among employers planning workforce reductions, cost management remains the dominant factor. More than seven in ten cited the need to reduce operating expenses, while others pointed to increased adoption of automation, artificial intelligence, and workforce technologies that reduce reliance on manual processes.

The findings reflect a broader shift toward skills-based workforce planning, where organizations evaluate not only headcount but also the evolving mix of human talent and digital capabilities required to meet business objectives.

AI Is Reshaping Recruitment Strategies

One of the survey’s most notable findings is the growing influence of artificial intelligence on talent acquisition.

Nearly half of hiring managers identified AI in recruitment and hiring processes as a major challenge for the remainder of 2026. Rather than replacing recruiters, AI is increasingly transforming candidate sourcing, resume screening, interview scheduling, skills assessments, and workforce analytics.

As HR departments integrate AI-powered recruiting technologies, organizations face new challenges around implementation, governance, fairness, and recruiter adoption. Many enterprises are simultaneously modernizing hiring processes while adapting to evolving workforce expectations regarding transparency, personalization, and candidate experience.

Enterprise HR platforms including Workday, SAP SuccessFactors, Oracle, Microsoft, and ADP continue expanding AI capabilities across recruiting, workforce planning, employee lifecycle management, and skills intelligence. These technologies help organizations automate administrative tasks while providing HR leaders with predictive insights to improve hiring outcomes.

Workforce Planning Requires Greater Agility

Beyond candidate shortages, employers also cited economic uncertainty and changing government policies as factors complicating workforce planning. These concerns reinforce the importance of workforce analytics and scenario planning as organizations prepare for changing labor market conditions.

According to Gartner, AI-assisted recruiting and skills-based talent strategies are becoming strategic priorities for HR leaders seeking to address persistent labor shortages. Meanwhile, McKinsey & Company has reported that organizations investing in workforce reskilling and internal talent mobility are often better positioned to navigate changing labor market demands than those relying solely on external hiring.

Bob Funk Jr., CEO, President, and Chairman of Express Employment International, noted that addressing the talent gap will require both employers and job seekers to adapt. He emphasized the importance of investing in employee development, arguing that organizations may increasingly need to hire for potential rather than expecting candidates to arrive fully prepared.

The survey findings point toward a labor market that remains active but increasingly competitive. While hiring demand continues across many industries, organizations are facing greater pressure to improve recruitment strategies, strengthen employer branding, expand skills development programs, and leverage AI-powered HR technologies to identify and retain talent.

For CHROs and talent acquisition leaders, success in the second half of 2026 will likely depend not only on attracting candidates but also on building agile hiring processes capable of responding to rapidly changing workforce needs.

Market Landscape

The HR technology market continues to evolve as organizations respond to ongoing talent shortages through AI-powered recruitment platforms, workforce analytics, and skills-based hiring strategies.

Enterprise platforms such as Workday, SAP SuccessFactors, Oracle HCM, Microsoft, and ADP are expanding AI capabilities that support candidate matching, predictive workforce planning, internal mobility, and recruiter productivity.

Rather than focusing solely on hiring volume, many organizations are investing in workforce intelligence technologies that improve hiring quality, accelerate recruitment, and identify future skills requirements. As labor shortages persist, HR technology is increasingly becoming a strategic differentiator for enterprise talent acquisition.

Top Insights

• 84% of U.S. hiring managers remain optimistic about hiring during the second half of 2026, reflecting continued workforce investment despite economic uncertainty.
• 44% of employers report unfilled job openings, highlighting persistent talent shortages and growing challenges in sourcing qualified candidates.
• AI is becoming a major recruitment priority, with nearly half of hiring managers expecting challenges related to AI adoption in hiring processes.
• Business growth, workforce expansion, and employee turnover remain the primary drivers behind new hiring activity across U.S. organizations.
• Employers increasingly view workforce planning as a combination of recruitment, skills development, automation, and AI-enabled talent management.

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