U.S. private-sector hiring is inching upward again.
For the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week, according to the latest NER Pulse from ADP Research. The figure marks the fourth consecutive week of strengthening gains, suggesting early-year hiring momentum is stabilizing after a choppy December.
The NER Pulse is a weekly estimate derived from the monthly ADP National Employment Report, offering a high-frequency snapshot of private employment trends. Data is seasonally adjusted and based on a four-week moving average, with a two-week lag to improve accuracy.
A Gradual Climb in Weekly Hiring
The progression since early January shows a steady upward trend:
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Feb. 7, 2026: 12,750
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Jan. 31, 2026: 11,500
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Jan. 24, 2026: 7,250
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Jan. 17, 2026: 5,500
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Jan. 10, 2026: 4,250
Just weeks ago, the average sat barely above 4,000. The latest reading represents a near threefold increase from early January lows.
December’s numbers were more volatile. Hiring dipped as low as 2,500 for the week ending Dec. 6, before spiking to 20,000 and 17,000 in late November. Those swings underscore the value of the four-week smoothing method ADP uses to cut through holiday distortions and seasonal noise.
Still, context matters. A 12,750 weekly average translates to roughly 51,000 private-sector jobs per month—solid, but far from the breakneck pace seen during post-pandemic rebounds.
What the NER Pulse Measures—and Why It Matters
Unlike government employment reports, the NER Pulse is based on anonymized payroll data processed by ADP, giving it a high-frequency edge. It serves as an early directional indicator ahead of broader monthly labor data.
The Pulse publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except during weeks when ADP releases its full monthly employment report. It is produced in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, adding academic rigor to the methodology.
Because the figures are preliminary and subject to revision as additional payroll data flows in, they’re best read as a trend line rather than a final tally.
Signals for HR and Talent Leaders
For HR executives and workforce planners, the four-week strengthening streak offers cautious optimism.
After a late-2025 slowdown and uneven hiring in December, employers appear to be regaining confidence—but selectively. Gains remain moderate, consistent with a labor market that is expanding, yet cooling compared to prior expansion cycles.
Several dynamics could be influencing the measured pace:
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Companies continuing to balance cost controls with strategic hiring
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Increased reliance on contract or project-based work
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Productivity gains from automation and AI moderating net headcount growth
While the NER Pulse doesn’t break down sector-level hiring in this weekly format, the steady improvement suggests stabilization rather than acceleration.
Momentum, But Not a Surge
The upward trajectory is encouraging, particularly as businesses move deeper into Q1 planning cycles. However, the scale of gains suggests incremental growth, not a hiring boom.
Whether momentum continues will likely depend on broader macroeconomic signals—including interest rate direction, consumer demand, and corporate earnings performance in early 2026.
The next NER Pulse is scheduled for March 10, 2026.
For now, the message is straightforward: private-sector hiring is strengthening, but cautiously. Employers are adding jobs—just not racing to do so.
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