Four out of five U.S. hiring managers think a recession is coming—and many aren’t waiting for confirmation before tightening the screws. According to the latest Express Employment Professionals–Harris Poll survey, nearly half expect a downturn within the next year, and most are already making moves that will reshape hiring and workforce strategy well into 2025.
The topline? 94% say a recession would impact their organization, 60% expect a major or moderate hit, and 36% worry their company might not survive—rising to 57% among blue-collar employers.
The Early Response: Cut, Freeze, Streamline
If a recession hits, 35% of companies say they’ll cut hiring (up from 30% in spring 2022) and 17% would freeze it entirely. Many are already acting:
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Cutting unnecessary expenses (45%)
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Streamlining processes (29%)
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Cross-training staff (26%)
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Not replacing vacated roles (23%)
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Layoffs (19%)
These moves echo projections from the Congressional Budget Office, which warns that a moderate recession could push unemployment from 4.2% to as high as 7.5%, potentially costing 5 million jobs.
Cautious Optimism—With Strings Attached
Despite the belt-tightening, 78% of employers believe they’ll be in a stronger position by year’s end, and 58% even see a potential recession as a growth opportunity. But the strategic cost is real: 61% say recession prep has pulled time and resources from long-term initiatives, and 57% have already overhauled their 2025 plans.
When asked what would help them weather a downturn, hiring managers prioritized:
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Training and upskilling (60%)
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Flexible staffing models (39%)
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Clearer leadership communication (33%)
“The most resilient companies don’t just react to economic shifts; they use them as catalysts to become more efficient,” said Bob Funk Jr., CEO of Express Employment International. “By streamlining operations and investing in versatile talent, businesses can position themselves for long-term success in any environment.”
The Big Picture
The split between defensive cost-cutting and opportunistic investment highlights a familiar recession playbook—one that could determine which employers emerge stronger and which don’t emerge at all. With hiring momentum already slowing, the next six months may be a stress test for both workforce agility and leadership vision.
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